Luke Bailey is a likely starter for the Dragons' semi finals tilt.

Wests and North Queensland play off on one side of town, while on the other side Cronulla hosts Melbourne. These two games will end some of the speculation over who will round out the field in the semi-finals of NRL 2004. But they won’t solve it all. Should the Storm and the Cowboys prevail, they will gain their free pass into the post-season leaving just one place vacant and the Tigers would need to overcome the Knights in Newcastle to continue on. If Wests and Melbourne do the job, again the winners are assured survival, even if it is only on points differential for the Tigers. But should this second option play out, next weekend will determine the eighth place in a single game showdown.

Cronulla would travel to the Far North for a match against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, the game isn’t slated for free-to-air because of its Saturday scheduling. Should we get down to this game providing team number eight, it will be a ground record at Dairy Farmers Stadium and the parochial fans would ride the Cowboys home to victory one would think. The only downside in all this excitement is the numbers in the finals. Eight teams will progress, more than half of the competition, and two of those will progress with losing records, meaning more losses than wins over the course of the season.

Two weeks out from the finals, a Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs clash would usually whet the appetite like the smell of a pie at the ground. But without Andrew Johns, and needing a statistical miracle to make the finals, some of the lustre leaves the Telstra Stadium match up. Add to that a Bulldogs side who were beaten last weekend and a sizeable carve up is in the making. And Brent Sherwin can’t kick that poorly two weeks in a row can he? Newcastle isn’t likely to go down without a fight though. Five more minutes last week and the Dragons would have lost to a 12-man Knights outfit. But a wounded Bulldog is a rare and volatile species. Prediction: Bulldogs by 16.

Souths host their final home match of the season when the Broncos come to town on Saturday afternoon. With only next year to look forward to this game is a true test of character for the Bunnies. In the coinciding fixture last year it took a Gorden Tallis strip in the moments before the full-time siren to gather a victory for Brisbane. But those heroics seem out of the reach of this Souths outfit. With the inclusion of Scott Logan who has returned from England, five former Roosters line up for the Rabbitohs. But even with the long injury list, the Broncos should be too classy for wooden spooners. Prediction: Broncos by 20.

In what shapes as the game of the round Melbourne travel to “The Shire” for the match against Cronulla. You don’t have to be Frodo Baggins to realise that the Sharks have only one way to achieve a finals spot – keep winning. With the Sharks trailing Wests on difference, a slip up means the end and may even open the door for Newcastle or, unbelievably, Parramatta to slip in to the last finals place. And while the game may be won in the halves, it will be the forwards that give the number sevens the chance to operate. The bigger, more experienced Storm pack should provide a better platform for Matt Orford and Scott Hill to create points. Brett Kimmorley’s re-introduction can only help the Sharks and while it will be tight, the Storm will continue their bid for a home finals match. Prediction: Storm by 4.

After looking like they could claim the wooden spoon, some decisive victories have put Parramatta back in the finals frame. A superior points difference could see them oust Cronulla for a place in the finals should they get past the Tigers on points. But that seems like a mighty task considering they play the Panthers this weekend followed by the Roosters. As has been the case in the last couple of year, the Eels have finished strongly but with too little too late. In round 26 last year a finals place was available, but a send off took all the momentum from the Eels. This year it’s just plain statistics. Parramatta haven’t won three in a row and against the dominant pack and clinical finishing of the Panthers, that record is unlikely to change. Prediction: Panthers by 16.

On the numbers alone, the Warriors are sure things in Sunday’s match against the Roosters. The last time Sydney beat the Kiwis at Ericsson Stadium, Adrian Lam was playing halfback. But numbers alone don’t tell the whole story. New Zealand has been culling as the season draws to a close. PJ Marsh has become the latest “Once Were Warriors” while Justin Murphy follows Henry Fa’afili and Ali Lauiti’iti to the UK. In fact, of the strongest run on side named at the start of the year in Big League magazine only five will play this weekend. And with the Warriors conceding five tries a game on average and the Roosters scoring the same, expect the Roosters to cross thirty-point barrier. Prediction: Roosters by 24.

Which Dragons will surface at Oki Jubilee this weekend? Just holding out against the 12-man Knights last weekend, St George-Illawarra fans must be most at risk of heart failure during the regular season. And they meet the Sea Eagles who were thrashed by 60 points at Penrith only to trounce the Knights by 38 the following week. Form is no guide for either side depending on the ratio of Jekyll to Hyde on the day, and for either team, a win will represent their longest winning streak this year. The one fact that does stand out is that Manly have only beaten sides below them when travelling. Nathan Brown will emphasise to his men that getting a roll on leading into the finals is important, particularly since the joint venture has the bye next weekend. And that will be the difference. Prediction: Dragons by 32.

The black and white jersey of the Western Suburbs Club will once again grace Campbelltown Sports Ground as the Tigers run the second day remembering the individual clubs that make their merger. A record crowd turned out at Leichhardt for the “Balmain” game and the “Wests” game is no less of a drawcard. A win will almost certainly assure a final berth for the victors, neither of which has seen a finals series in their short histories. The loser will have to tough out a danger game next week against a side who is likely to snatch their spot if they falter. A ground record is highly likely at Campbelltown as the Western Suburbs faithful don their “Victa” jersey and remember the history of the Magpies. Add to that the first time North Queensland will appear on free-to-air TV since their inaugural game in 1990 and this has the hallmarks of a classic. The absence of Paul Rauhihi will again hamper the visitors. Prediction: Wests by 7.

We’ve had the top and bottom four play off in the last two weeks and now the four looking to fill the last three slots battle it out. Every game has the ability to affect the minor premiership, home semi-finalists and tops eight in what should be a great weekend of footy. Good luck with your selections.

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source: MasterTips